Spotify, de redding van de muziekindustrie

Geplaatst op door Rens

Liefhebbers van muziek kennen het wel. Je leest of hoort over een nieuw bandje en je wilt het direct luisteren. Spotify is dan je grote vriend, zoals het ook je grote vriend is om nieuwe artiesten te ontdekken, of je nu thuis bent of onderweg. Als het nieuw ontdekte bandje bevalt, koop je concerttickets alwaar je aan het eind van het concert een plaat aanschaft bij de merch en de band nog vaak terugluistert via Spotify. Een studie van Spotify & Lowlands laat zien dat er een verband is tussen optredens en streams uit die regio:

Veel artiesten kotsen op Spotify omdat ze te weinig aan hun uitkeren. Verschillende artiesten hebben geprobeerd zich af te zetten tegen de Zweedse techgigant (remember Taylor Shift, The Beatles en The Black Keys), maar allemaal kwamen ze met hangende pootjes terug. Logisch immers, want concurrerende streamingsdiensten hebben veel minder volume (en zijn dus minder interessant) óf betalen veel minder, zoals YouTube. In de streamingsmarkt kunnen artiesten simpelweg niet onder Spotify uit.

De streamingsmarkt moet niet onderschat worden. De reikwijdte is vele malen groter dan bij de oudere verschijningsvormen. Je kón vroeger niet vanuit huis een nieuw bandje ontdekken en met je platenspeler kon je ook geen muziek in de trein luisteren. Een artiest bouwt zo via Spotify beter aan zijn bereik, dat vervolgens met lucratieve optredens kan worden verzilverd. Maar om streaming enkel als een dienst te zien dat zorgt voor bekendheid is onjuist. Zie hieronder de omzet van de wereldwijde muziekindustrie in twee grafieken gevat (bron: NRC):

Je ziet dat streaming verantwoordelijk is voor een gigantisch deel van de inkomsten die labels ontvangen en dat dit alleen maar groter wordt. Voordat we inzoomen op de afdracht naar muzikanten, is het aan de hand van deze grafieken interessant om stil te staan bij de historische context. Spotify is opgericht in 2008, op een moment dat de fysieke verkoop al fors afnam en het aantal downloads fors toenamen. Niet geheel toevallig was er kort voordat Spotify hun app lanceerde, een inval bij hun landgenoten van The Pirate Bay. Deze piraten waren wellicht prettig voor de consument (“gratis muziek!”) maar desastreus voor de inkomsten van muzikanten. Jezelf afzetten tegen de opkomst van streaming is jezelf onderdompelen in vroeger-was-alles-beter-nostalgie, maar welbeschouwd willen consumenten streamen en is het enige alternatief dat de muziek gratis van internet wordt geplukt.  

Een nier voor geen Rutte IV

Moet Spotify dan meer geld vragen aan consumenten? Dat kan zeker, maar dan ligt direct het gevaar van piraterij weer op de loer. Het is goed om te weten dat Spotify 155 miljoen betalende gebruikers heeft en dat zij zo’n 75% van hun inkomsten direct afdragen aan de platenmaatschappijen. Het klopt dat Spotify maar zo’n $0,004 per stream afdraagt en dat dit onvergelijkbaar is met de verkoop van een singletje bij Concerto, maar het is ook belangrijk om te zien dat Spotify nauwelijks meer kán afdragen en dat de productiekosten van een cd/lp ook niet hoeven te worden gemaakt. Het klopt dat Tidal zo’n 3x meer uitkeert dan Spotify, maar zij hebben slechts 3 miljoen gebruikers. En vergeet vooral niet dat de streamafdracht heel erg weinig klinkt, maar in deze streaminggeneratie (en ook: repeatgeneratie) lopen de aantallen erg snel erg hard op. ‘Ik Ga Zwemmen’ liep in één zomer over de vijftien miljoen streams, en dan is de afzetmarkt voor een Nederlandstalig nummer natuurlijk nog tamelijk beperkt. Spotify zou ook 95% kunnen uitkeren in plaats van 75%, maar dan kunnen ze vervolgens hun app niet onderhouden en zijn muzikanten vanzelf aangewezen op YouTube (zij dragen zo’n vijf keer minder af per stream dan Spotify, zie onderstaande afbeelding). Spotify kan ook duurder worden voor consumenten, maar dan wordt piraterij weer een stuk aantrekkelijker.

Moeten artiesten dan hun bek houden? Sowieso de ‘oudjes’ met een gigantische backcatalogus: Fleetwood Mac heeft dik verdiend aan Rumours én krijgt nu maandelijks een héél lekker pensioentje overgemaakt van Spotify van dezelfde plaat. Volgens schattingen is zijn deze backcatalogi goed voor 70% van al het streamingvolume. Voor nieuwe muziek is het wijs om ervoor te zorgen dat je een pakkend lied maakt dat vaak op repeat zal worden gezet alsook toegankelijk is voor de vele door Spotify gecureerde playlists. (Eat that, David Crosby.) Daarnaast zijn er ook wat slimmigheden om rekening mee te houden: Spotify telt een stream bijvoorbeeld pas mee als de dertig seconden zijn gepasseerd, waardoor een ellenlange intro killing kan zijn. Maar de grootste winst is waarschijnlijk bij het eigen label te halen. Veel labels keren nog geen 10% van zijn binnenkomende streamingsgelden uit aan de artiest (dit wordt langzaam meer en is zeker bij topartiesten allang hoger, maar nog altijd niet meer dan zo’n 35%). Wat opvallend is, is dat dit – kijkend naar het pre-steamingtijdperk – nauwelijks stijgt, terwijl de distributie digitaal veel eenvoudiger en goedkoper is. Dát is krom.

Is de markt vergeven? Welnee. YouTube heeft intussen ook een betaalvariant met 50 miljoen abonnees, dus wellicht dat – als zij meer gaan afdragen – artiesten hier meer fiducie in zien (hallo majors, wanneer gaan jullie betere contracten afdwingen?). En Apple Music – dat zo’n 2,5 keer meer betaalt per stream dan Spotify – heeft een gratis kwaliteitsupgrade gedaan voor hun betalende gebruikers. Zij lijken te kiezen voor de Ziggo Sport-strategie: het product zo goed maken dat niet per se dat product winstgevend wordt, maar dat het een extra reden voor mensen wordt om voor het moedermerk te kiezen. De ontwikkelingen in de markt zijn spannend en het is begrijpelijkerwijs extra spannend dat het in handen ligt van grote techreuzen, maar vooralsnog is de markt bruisend, succesvol en zijn de financiële voorzichten goed. Goede afspraken tussen muzikanten en labels zijn daarom belangrijker dan ooit.

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